Trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit a snag that may jeopardize the entire negotiation process.

September U.S. cheese output slipped to 1.08 billion pounds, down 3.7% from August but 2.1% above September 2018, according to the USDA’s latest Dairy Products report. Year-to-date output is at 9.77 billion pounds, up 1.1% from a year ago.

This fall’s weather conditions are causing a slower than average harvest pace. The harvest pace varies considerably across the Corn Belt though, with some areas making good progress while others are just getting started. This is starting to become a concern for stands, mainly on soybeans. Re…

While U.S. export sales of corn and soybeans remain well behind last year, trade is split in how this will impact balance sheets. Some analysts are concerned demand is currently over-projected and will be scaled back as the marketing year progresses. Others disagree and believe sales are jus…

The October Federal order Class III benchmark milk price hit a five-year high this week at $18.72 per hundredweight, up 41 cents from September, $3.19 above October 2018, and the highest Class III since November 2014. It equates to about $1.61 per gallon, up from $1.57 in September and $1.34…

Some call it a September surprise. Others call it fodder for the bears. The USDA’s latest Milk Production report showed preliminary output at 17.6 billion pounds, up 1.3% from September 2018. Output in the top 24 states totaled 16.8 billion, up 1.6%. Revisions added 10 million pounds to the …

We are starting to see more harvest activity in the United States as weather permits. As always, the initial interest is on yield when this happens. To nobody’s surprise, early yields in the U.S. are variable. While no specific numbers have been given, reports range from “better than expecte…

Weather remains an underlying factor in today’s trade, mainly the recent storm that moved through the Upper Plains. This brought heavy snows to the region, with parts of North Dakota seeing close to 3 feet. Much colder temperatures have settled in across the region as well, bringing an end t…

This week’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw its weighted average of products offered move higher for the third consecutive session, up 0.5% following a 0.2% rise Oct. 1 and the 2.0% jump on Sept. 17.

The Agriculture Department again raised its 2019 milk production estimate in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, based on higher cow numbers and stronger growth in milk per cow. The 2020 forecast was upped from last month based on expected continued gains in mil…

Although early, we are starting to receive yield reports from across the Corn Belt. It is no surprise that these vary greatly from region to region. Yields are being reported as much less than initially expected to the “best ever” from area to area. This is not that surprising given the stre…

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue kicked off World Dairy Expo in Madison this week, telling dairy farmers they will have to adapt to survive. He said “It’s very difficult in the economy of scale, capital needs, all of the environmental regulations and everything else to survive milking 40, …

The quarterly stocks data surprised trade on corn and soybeans with lower numbers than what were expected. As of Sept. 1, the United States had 2.11 billion bushels of corn in reserves compared to 2.14 billion bushels a year ago. The average guess going into this release was for 2.42 billion…

Hemorrhaging in the cash cheese market appeared to have come to an end the final week of September, as traders awaited the August Dairy Products report issued Oct. 3 and impeachment drums resounded in Washington.

The U.S. continues to see heavy competition in the global corn market from Brazil. In the month of August, Brazil exported a record 7.65 million metric tons of corn. For the same month of 2018, Brazil only exported 2.9 million metric tons of corn.

Over the past week, we have seen an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. While tariffs remain in place between the two countries, both sides have agreed to no new tariffs at this time. China has even stepped up and bought U.S. soybeans with existing tariffs in place. This has…

U.S. milk production remains above a year ago but not by much. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report showed preliminary output at 18.28 billion pounds, up 0.2% from August 2018. Output in the top 24 states hit 17.4 billion pounds, up 0.4%. Revisions added 40 million poun…

When it comes global soybean trade, all interest remains on China. Since the start of the trade dispute between China and the United States, sales to China have dropped considerably. This is not just on old crop soybeans but new crop as well. At the end of the old crop marketing year the Uni…

Trade remains concerned with the old crop soybean sales cancellations that have taken place. China has washed out of several soybean purchases from the United States in recent weeks. This generates concerns over the 104 million bushels of remaining purchases China has on the books. This acco…

Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw its weighted average of products offered slip 0.4%, following a 0.2% slippage on Aug. 20 and 2.6% on Aug. 6. Sellers brought 87.5 million pounds of product to the market, up from 75.9 million in the last event and the highest since Nov. 20, 2018.

Even though we have yet to harvest this year’s crops, trade is already looking forward to next year’s production. The most interest in the domestic market is if we can see enough acres shift from soybeans to corn to produce an adequate crop to satisfy demand.

President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe announced that they have struck a free trade agreement in principle. A formal signing is expected next month during the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York. The announcement came as leaders of the G7 countries, Canada, F…

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China has been a great benefit for Brazilian corn exports. In the month of July, Brazil exported a record 6.3 million metric tons of corn to China. Given this pace and the size of this year’s Brazilian corn crop, it is believed China may import a large …

U.S. milk production inched higher ever so slightly in July. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report showed preliminary output at 18.3 billion pounds, up fractionally from July 2018. Output in the 24 top producing states hit 17.5 billion pounds, up 0.1%, with 11 out of the…

The U.S. Department of Agriculture shocked trade by increasing its corn crop estimate. The USDA now pegs the U.S. corn yield at 169.5 bushels per acre and crop size at 13.9 billion bushels. While the yield was 3.5 bushels higher than the July estimate, crop size only increased 26 million bus…

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2019 and 2020 milk production estimates in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report based on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow.

Even though we are now well into the domestic growing season, acreage remains a market factor. For one, trade is disputing the planted and harvested acres the U.S. Department of Agriculture is currently using in balance sheets. Many analysts and producers alike are expecting to see decreases…

Global trade took the spotlight the first full week of August as President Donald Trump announced the addition of 10 percent tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese imports to the U.S., effective Sept. 1. China responded by letting its yuan value tumble and state-owned companies ceased pu…

One thing that has be consistent with this year’s planting and growing season has been variability, and there are no indications this will end any time soon.

The Agriculture Department announced the July benchmark Class III milk price at $17.55 per hundredweight, up $1.28 from June, $3.45 above July 2018, and the highest Class III price since December 2014. It equates to $1.51 per gallon, up from $1.40 in June and $1.21 a year ago.

While the condition of the U.S. corn and soybean crops has improved, there remains concern over the maturity pace. Field scouts claim both crops are currently behind their normal maturity levels by two to four weeks. This is not a major lag, but it is enough to cause some concern for how the…

U.S. milk production continues to limp. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report show preliminary June output at 18.23 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from June 2018. Output in the 24 top producing states hit 17.3 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent. Revisions added 9 million p…

Export data out of China shows just how far their soybean imports have been reduced this year due to African Swine Fever and the U.S. trade war. China’s June soybean imports were down 11.5 percent from May as the country’s hog herd was reduced. June 2019 soybean imports were also down 25 per…

Powder and cheese lifted the July 16 Global Dairy Trade auction, ending four consecutive declines. The weighted average of products offered jumped 2.7 percent, following a 0.4 percent loss on July 2, 3.8 percent on June 18, 3.4 percent on June 4, and 1.2 percent on May 21. Sellers brought 55…

The Agriculture Department’s latest Crop Progress report shows 98% of U.S. corn has emerged, as of the week ending July 7, up from 94% the previous week and just 2% below a year ago and the five year average. 57% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down from 75% a year ago.

We are now at a stage of the growing season where some traders start to remove their risk premium. In many years once we get past the July 4 holiday, traders start to classify the crops as being “made.” This is especially the case for corn, as soybean yield is heavily determined by August we…

The Agriculture Department announced the June Federal order benchmark milk price at $16.27 per hundredweight, down 11 cents from May but $1.06 above June 2018 and is $1.84 above what California’s 4b cheese milk price was in June 2018. While down from May, it’s the highest Class III price sin…

Weather data shows that the month of June will go down as a record setter across the Corn Belt. June has the Corn Belt on track for 11 straight months of above-normal precipitation. This will also make the last 12 months the wettest for the Corn Belt in the past 125 years. The question now i…

We are starting to see more estimates released on potential new-crop balance sheets. Given all the issues the corn crop is facing, many analysts have lowered production forecasts and new-crop carryout totals. Most believe new-crop corn carryout will fall between 1 and 1.5 billion bushels at …

The Agriculture Department lowered its 2019 milk production estimate for the seventh month in a row in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, blaming slower-than-anticipated growth in milk per cow and lower expected cow numbers. The 2020 forecast was also reduced a…

We are starting to hear some questions in the market that may bring a change in attitude. We have seen a considerable amount of interest on production recently, but not much on demand. Demand has been good on U.S. grains and soybeans but appears to be falling short of projections. As a resul…

The Agriculture Department’s monthly benchmark milk price has reached the highest level in more than a year and a half. The May Federal order Class III price was announced at $16.38 per hundredweight, up 42 cents from April, $1.20 above May 2018, and the highest Class III price since November 2017.

We are now at a point where planting delays and adverse weather will play a more important role in crop production. The main factor being considered is acreage, as we are now at the stage where prevent-plant insurance may be used in much of the Corn Belt. This insurance allows farmers to col…

The May 17 announcement that the U.S. would lift steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico drew praise from dairy producers and processors this week and raised hopes in the dairy industry. Mexico, in turn, lifted its retaliatory tariffs against U.S. cheese exports. The break in the log…

When it comes to global corn demand, one factor is being overlooked. Over the past two years, world corn reserves have tightened 44 million metric tons. This is from a combination of elevated demand and production losses, mainly from drought in South America. Even with higher production bein…

The May 7 Global Dairy Trade auction registered its 11th consecutive session of gain and, while slowing, extended the longest run of gain since the GDT began in 2008. The weighted average of products offered inched 0.4 percent higher following a 0.5 percent rise on April 16 and 0.8 percent o…

We are now approaching the stage where the planting pace on corn becomes more of a market topic. History shows that if the U.S. corn crop is 70 percent planted by the third week of May, very few if any acres shift to alternative crops. At the same time, if the U.S. corn crop is more than 70 …