The long-awaited January United States Department of Agriculture reports have been released, and market reaction was somewhat muted given the pre-report hype. Corn production caught trade by surprise as production increased from November when a decrease had been expected. The average U.S. corn yield is now estimated at 168 bushels per acre, 1 bushel more than the previous estimate. Even with a harvested acreage decline of 315,000 acres, this was enough to give the United States a 13.69 billion bushel crop estimate, 30 million bushels above the last projection. ... Read more

The United States have reached an agreement on a Phase 1 deal that is set to be signed by both sides. While the initial reaction to this was positive, trade is becoming less optimistic on its benefits.

Much of the interest in the market right now is on U.S. and South American production, but global grain reserves should likely be receiving more attention.

Mixed economic data has been released from the United States Department of Agriculture. Net farm income for the United States is projected to rise by 10% over 2018 for the 2019 calendar year. This will put net farm income at $92.5 billion. While this seems positive, data shows that roughly o…

The Agriculture Department reports preliminary November output at 17.4 billion pounds, up a bullish 0.5% from November 2018. Output in the top 24 states totaled 16.7 billion, up 0.9%. And, revisions reduced the original 50-state October total by 60 million pounds, now put at 18.0 billion, up…

Very few changes took place to the domestic balance sheets in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, which is not surprising given the fact only demand was updated. Even then, no change was made to corn and soybean usage.

Global trade tensions have increased as the U.S. has indicated it is in no hurry to resolve issues with China. President Donald Trump has stated he believes the trade war could last past the 2020 election.

The United Sates Agriculture Department announced the November Federal order Class III benchmark milk price at $20.45 per hundredweight this week, up $1.73 from October, $6.01 above November 2018, and the highest Class III price since October 2014.

The October Cold Storage report served a little fodder to the bulls for Thanksgiving. Oct. 31 butter stocks totaled 237.7 million pounds, down an impressive 52.9 million pounds or 18.2% from September and just 6.5 million pounds or 2.8% above October 2018. Revisions lowered the original Sept…

Corn sales remain well below expectations for the marketing year as buyers continue to take their business to Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine. The main reason for this is price as the U.S. is above the global market on corn offers. In the spot market the price difference is $11.00 per metric …

The Agriculture Department reports preliminary October milk output at bearish 18.1 billion pounds, up 1.3% from October 2018. Output in the top 24 states totaled 17.3 billion, up 1.7%. Revisions added 7 million pounds to the original September total, now put at 17.7 billion pounds, up 1.3% f…

As reported last week, the Agriculture Department raised its milk production estimates in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, as “stronger growth in milk per cow more than offsets a slower expected recovery in the cow inventory.”

Trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit a snag that may jeopardize the entire negotiation process.

September U.S. cheese output slipped to 1.08 billion pounds, down 3.7% from August but 2.1% above September 2018, according to the USDA’s latest Dairy Products report. Year-to-date output is at 9.77 billion pounds, up 1.1% from a year ago.

This fall’s weather conditions are causing a slower than average harvest pace. The harvest pace varies considerably across the Corn Belt though, with some areas making good progress while others are just getting started. This is starting to become a concern for stands, mainly on soybeans. Re…

While U.S. export sales of corn and soybeans remain well behind last year, trade is split in how this will impact balance sheets. Some analysts are concerned demand is currently over-projected and will be scaled back as the marketing year progresses. Others disagree and believe sales are jus…

The October Federal order Class III benchmark milk price hit a five-year high this week at $18.72 per hundredweight, up 41 cents from September, $3.19 above October 2018, and the highest Class III since November 2014. It equates to about $1.61 per gallon, up from $1.57 in September and $1.34…

Some call it a September surprise. Others call it fodder for the bears. The USDA’s latest Milk Production report showed preliminary output at 17.6 billion pounds, up 1.3% from September 2018. Output in the top 24 states totaled 16.8 billion, up 1.6%. Revisions added 10 million pounds to the …

We are starting to see more harvest activity in the United States as weather permits. As always, the initial interest is on yield when this happens. To nobody’s surprise, early yields in the U.S. are variable. While no specific numbers have been given, reports range from “better than expecte…

Weather remains an underlying factor in today’s trade, mainly the recent storm that moved through the Upper Plains. This brought heavy snows to the region, with parts of North Dakota seeing close to 3 feet. Much colder temperatures have settled in across the region as well, bringing an end t…

This week’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw its weighted average of products offered move higher for the third consecutive session, up 0.5% following a 0.2% rise Oct. 1 and the 2.0% jump on Sept. 17.

The Agriculture Department again raised its 2019 milk production estimate in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, based on higher cow numbers and stronger growth in milk per cow. The 2020 forecast was upped from last month based on expected continued gains in mil…

Although early, we are starting to receive yield reports from across the Corn Belt. It is no surprise that these vary greatly from region to region. Yields are being reported as much less than initially expected to the “best ever” from area to area. This is not that surprising given the stre…

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Purdue kicked off World Dairy Expo in Madison this week, telling dairy farmers they will have to adapt to survive. He said “It’s very difficult in the economy of scale, capital needs, all of the environmental regulations and everything else to survive milking 40, …

The quarterly stocks data surprised trade on corn and soybeans with lower numbers than what were expected. As of Sept. 1, the United States had 2.11 billion bushels of corn in reserves compared to 2.14 billion bushels a year ago. The average guess going into this release was for 2.42 billion…

Hemorrhaging in the cash cheese market appeared to have come to an end the final week of September, as traders awaited the August Dairy Products report issued Oct. 3 and impeachment drums resounded in Washington.

The U.S. continues to see heavy competition in the global corn market from Brazil. In the month of August, Brazil exported a record 7.65 million metric tons of corn. For the same month of 2018, Brazil only exported 2.9 million metric tons of corn.

Over the past week, we have seen an easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China. While tariffs remain in place between the two countries, both sides have agreed to no new tariffs at this time. China has even stepped up and bought U.S. soybeans with existing tariffs in place. This has…

U.S. milk production remains above a year ago but not by much. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report showed preliminary output at 18.28 billion pounds, up 0.2% from August 2018. Output in the top 24 states hit 17.4 billion pounds, up 0.4%. Revisions added 40 million poun…

When it comes global soybean trade, all interest remains on China. Since the start of the trade dispute between China and the United States, sales to China have dropped considerably. This is not just on old crop soybeans but new crop as well. At the end of the old crop marketing year the Uni…

Trade remains concerned with the old crop soybean sales cancellations that have taken place. China has washed out of several soybean purchases from the United States in recent weeks. This generates concerns over the 104 million bushels of remaining purchases China has on the books. This acco…

Tuesday’s Global Dairy Trade auction saw its weighted average of products offered slip 0.4%, following a 0.2% slippage on Aug. 20 and 2.6% on Aug. 6. Sellers brought 87.5 million pounds of product to the market, up from 75.9 million in the last event and the highest since Nov. 20, 2018.

Even though we have yet to harvest this year’s crops, trade is already looking forward to next year’s production. The most interest in the domestic market is if we can see enough acres shift from soybeans to corn to produce an adequate crop to satisfy demand.

President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Abe announced that they have struck a free trade agreement in principle. A formal signing is expected next month during the United Nations General Assembly meetings in New York. The announcement came as leaders of the G7 countries, Canada, F…

The trade dispute between the U.S. and China has been a great benefit for Brazilian corn exports. In the month of July, Brazil exported a record 6.3 million metric tons of corn to China. Given this pace and the size of this year’s Brazilian corn crop, it is believed China may import a large …

U.S. milk production inched higher ever so slightly in July. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report showed preliminary output at 18.3 billion pounds, up fractionally from July 2018. Output in the 24 top producing states hit 17.5 billion pounds, up 0.1%, with 11 out of the…

The U.S. Department of Agriculture shocked trade by increasing its corn crop estimate. The USDA now pegs the U.S. corn yield at 169.5 bushels per acre and crop size at 13.9 billion bushels. While the yield was 3.5 bushels higher than the July estimate, crop size only increased 26 million bus…

The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2019 and 2020 milk production estimates in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report based on expectations of a smaller dairy herd and slower growth in milk per cow.

Even though we are now well into the domestic growing season, acreage remains a market factor. For one, trade is disputing the planted and harvested acres the U.S. Department of Agriculture is currently using in balance sheets. Many analysts and producers alike are expecting to see decreases…

Global trade took the spotlight the first full week of August as President Donald Trump announced the addition of 10 percent tariffs on another $300 billion in Chinese imports to the U.S., effective Sept. 1. China responded by letting its yuan value tumble and state-owned companies ceased pu…

One thing that has be consistent with this year’s planting and growing season has been variability, and there are no indications this will end any time soon.

The Agriculture Department announced the July benchmark Class III milk price at $17.55 per hundredweight, up $1.28 from June, $3.45 above July 2018, and the highest Class III price since December 2014. It equates to $1.51 per gallon, up from $1.40 in June and $1.21 a year ago.

While the condition of the U.S. corn and soybean crops has improved, there remains concern over the maturity pace. Field scouts claim both crops are currently behind their normal maturity levels by two to four weeks. This is not a major lag, but it is enough to cause some concern for how the…

U.S. milk production continues to limp. The Agriculture Department’s latest Milk Production report show preliminary June output at 18.23 billion pounds, down 0.3 percent from June 2018. Output in the 24 top producing states hit 17.3 billion pounds, up 0.1 percent. Revisions added 9 million p…