Several analysts have revised their Brazilian soybean production estimates recently, but now we are seeing alterations to the country’s soybean export forecast. The firm Safras now puts Brazilian soybean exports for 2022 at 74.5 million metric tons. This is down 3.5 million metric tons from the firm’s previous estimate, and well below the 86.1 million metric tons it exported in 2021. This will leave a large void in the world market that the US may be able to at least partially fill.
Trade is also closely monitoring our corn export potential for the remainder of the marketing year. Initially it was expected that the US would see elevated corn demand towards the end of the summer months, but now this is being questioned. Argentina is offering corn for export at a sharp discount to the United States through the end of August. In just a few weeks we also start to see corn flowing out of Brazil, which is also under the US market. This may leave little if any room for late summer US business.